Current Events — HabitableZone

Current Events » in reply to good dates and numbers

A forecasts have to be taken with a grain of salt
Larry J — (archived)

From your link, CBO projects that under current law Social Security outlays will first exceed revenues from payroll taxes and taxation of benefits in 2020 and that the program will exhaust the trust funds in 2052.

In our discussion yesterday, I used 2018 as the year when the surplus ends. The CBO says 2020. Fair enough, all economic forecasts are based on a host of assumptions and variables. They're seldom accurate for more than a few years out due to economic cycles. So, 2018, 2020, even 2025, the point is that the SS tax surplus will end in the not too distant future. What do we do about it?

As to what happens when the trust funds are exhausted, you mentioned yesterday (regarding the claim that SS will be bankrupt after the trust fund is exhausted) that C&D: 70%, by the most conservative estimate, of benefits will still be payable. Its a big number: 30% of SS benefits- but were are talking about chicken feed compared to our current combined debt/deficit.

Well, if you or I were only able to pay 70% of our bills, I'm pretty sure our creditors would say that we are bankrupt.

If the average SS payment today is about $1000 and the rate of growth in SS payments is limited to 3%, by 2052, the payment will be about $4100. With only 2 workers paying in for every retiree, that's an average of over $2000 a month in SS taxes each. That's a high price to dump on my grandkids heads, and it doesn't even begin to address other serious issues like Medicare, Medicaid, and the growth in the rate of government spending. Sure, their income will be higher then, but so will the cost of everything.

Log in or register to post.

The whole thread (75 posts)