" "I also to think fair to say that IPCC doesn't have track record of accurately predicting anything."
As usual, if you want to put money behind non-predictions of global warming, let me know. "
You still think you are winning the bet.
Global temperature has been flat or declining for last 10 years. If global temperatures do not go up from here, we will be another little ice age [or perhaps, a ice age.]
A 3 C increase in global temperature within 100 years is increase greater 4 times than what occurred in the 20th century. You don't even believe this is likely.
We have yet to see an steady increase for 40 years, this means one is going to need an increase of more than .3 C
per decade to get to a 3 C increase before 2100.
Just to recover from recent cooling, we would need .6 C increase in the next decade. If it's only .3 C increase in next decade it's essential flat or still declining since 1998 and will need increases amounting to .5 per decade thereafter to even get close.
Or another way to say this, at the moment temperatures are so low that nearly wipe out all 20th Century warming.
Or they wipe out the warming of the last half of 20th century, so merely regaining the temperature of the 20th Century, doesn't indicate that one going have more 4 times to rate of warming in the 21 Century as compared to the 20th Century. The temperature record doesn't show any tendency of having 3 C warming in the 21 Century.
So you want bet, that we will get .2 C warming in a decade- and when the measure error is probably greater than .2 C decade. Even if temperature actually increase by .2 in the next decade it does mean anything other than a recover from present cooling period.
In other words, temperatures could be .2 C higher next year and over the last decade it's still been flat or declining.
I don't see any profit betting you because you are unaware of what the current conditions are at the moment and I don't any confidence you will be better informed in the future about the then current conditions.
If you think we will have .8 C increase in next decade and will bet on a .6 C increase in next decade, that indicate you actually think the 3 C increase in 21 Century is reasonable prediction.
Keep in mind that if the 21 had a 3 C increase it would then be the warmest it's been during the last 10,000 years, perhaps warmer than any time in the last 4 million years, but not the last 10 million or longer. Granted if we saw such increases it would conclusive proof of humans significantly affecting the global temperature. But it would not be the "end of the world" or be catastrophic.
It wouldn't melt Greenland's glaciers and cause significant sea level rise. It would increase the amount farmland available [maybe oranges could grow in Oregon- and pine trees would begin to grow in most areas of Finland] and at such temperatures [assuming they continued] one would have glaciers completely disappearing in temperate regions and perhaps Greenland could lose maybe 10 to 30% of it's ice mass per century in 22nd and following centuries.
A 3 C increase in global temperature in the coming century, will not cause animal extinctions, won't kill humans, will not cause sea levels rises which are even noticeable by people living on the coast- measurably by scientist obviously, and perhaps action will needed to prevent damage from potential future high storm surges.
Some ski resorts may go out of business, but there will still be ski resorts- probably twice a many has we have currently.
But a 3 C increase in next century seems very unlikely to me, I think a 1 C increase is quite possible. Though perhaps a 1 C increase since the beginning of 20th Century is more likely. A decrease to the temperatures of beginning of 20th century is also possible, and I hope it's doesn't get colder than this because that would be catastrophic.
Now, some people [Ted Turner] think 3 C prediction is too low, instead they imagine twice this increase occurring within 50 years. If Ted Turner is right, then that would be something which might be catastrophic.
Space/Science » in reply to re: A warmer Finland
re: A warmer Finland
The whole thread (62 posts)
- A warmer Finland
- re: A warmer Finland
- re: A warmer Finland
- Obviously...
- Can't stop that CO2
- The Larsen Ice Shelf
- "Glasser acknowledges that global warming had a major part to play in the collapse," (n/t)
- Media Hype on ´Melting´ Antarctic Ignores Record Ice Growth
- good job linking to a March report instead of current ones
- It isn't just about sea ice. It's the total mass balance of Antarctica
- and the models say increased snowfall in the Antarctic, so no contradiction
- Okay, then Greenland.
- It's the IPCC that counts
- I guess that settles it then.
- never happened
- re: never happened
- speaking of livelihoods, my bet offer is open
- Based on what results?
- re: speaking of livelihoods, my bet offer is open
- speaking of livelihoods, my bet offer is open
- There is a reason it was originally named GREENLAND and not ICELAND. (n/t)
- re: never happened
- never happened
- I guess that settles it then.
- re: Okay, then Greenland.
- It's the IPCC that counts
- Okay, then Greenland.
- and the models say increased snowfall in the Antarctic, so no contradiction
- It isn't just about sea ice. It's the total mass balance of Antarctica
- good job linking to a March report instead of current ones
- Media Hype on ´Melting´ Antarctic Ignores Record Ice Growth
- "Glasser acknowledges that global warming had a major part to play in the collapse," (n/t)
- re: Obviously...
- re: Obviously...
- re: A warmer Finland
- Obviously...
- re: A warmer Finland
- re: A warmer Finland
