Off Topic — HabitableZone

Off Topic » in reply to Low probability branches

re: Low probability branches
Bowser — (archived)

Re "over the top" with Nixon. (I can, and do, get near the top, I'll admit. And if I struggle hard enough I can just make it over.)

However, here's what we know about the Cuba missile crisis. First, there was a strong majority of Kennedy's advisors who wanted to invade. JFK was a minority in going for moderation, but he was President.

We can assume safely that there would have been more of a majority among Nixon's advisors, and/or the idea of an invasion would have appealed to Nixon.

Therefore it's not too much of an assumption that the US would have invaded. After all, we tried the Bay of Pigs.

HERE'S the scary part. The Soviets had tactical nuclear weapons in Cuba for that eventuality. AND THEY WERE UNDER LOCAL CONTROL. The local commanders had full authority to use these weapons if necessary.

And an invasion fleet would have been the only target which would have made their use necessary, and rich enough to justify them.

So, it's not too much of a leap to assume the local Soviet commander would have used them, or been court-martialed.

So far I don't think I'm operating within reason.

Now, what would have been Nixon's response if an American fleet had been nuked? What choices would he have had? Supposing he didn't nuke Russia. What would he tell the American people? The families of the dead and wounded?

I think it's a reasonable assumption that he would have ordered a strike. After all, the US and Soviet Union did not have a hot line. That was created on an ad hoc basis, with the intention of negotiating. Nixon may well have not had the opportunity to negotiate had he decided to invade.

Anyway, that's the scenario. And, in this case, I don't think it's unreasonable. Sometimes I am, I'll have to admit. Well, I will admit. Unlike my conservative friends, who would suggest that Bosnia is worse if it were suggested they were over the top.

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