Space/Science — HabitableZone

Space/Science » in reply to re: How to Make Friends & Influence People

Let's See
Mark Eby — (archived)

Since 1998 I've heard all kinds of proposals for commercial use of space independent of NASA. All kinds of new launch vehicles and private enterprise. Lets look at the credibility these guys have generated so far

Privatizing MIR - spectacular failure. The space fans who thought this was a loony idea were soundly castigated and treated as traitors by SFF types even after the failure refusing to believe it was a bad idea from the start.

New cheap launch vehicles for LEO - All failures except for one that started after the rest failed by Elon Musk who happens to be a strong humans to Mars supporter. The few old timers remaining on life support are now fighting to get shuttle replacement business contrary to their initial business model.

Private Moon rover - While I was impressed by a number of people involved this seems to have died a quiet death along with many similar concepts for privately financed robotic missions.

Space tourism - Suborbital flight seems to have made a breakthrough but I've been told Rutan's design is not suitable for LEO so we have yet to demonstrate that space torurism can really get us off Earth and even suborbital tourism has yet to be truly demonstrated. I'm betting Rutan and Branson will succeed personally and that this will push interest in LEO tourism especially with Bigelow pushing space hotels. All three have credibility with me, yet they seem a lot further from LEO tourism than the cheers from the business is the solution folks seem to indicate. Their previous success and deep pockets is why I have high hopes for future lunar tourism.

I've good reason to be skeptical of proposals as poorly supported as the ones you listed Ken. You can whistle credentials till the cows come home, but it doesn't change the fact you can't defend your pet projects with any realistic numbers.

Regards,
Mark

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