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Trust is an interesting question
Robert — (archived)

Wow, I wish I could've found the study that Morin mentioned. That would've been very interesting.

I did find a couple of other, smaller, studies of historical trends in trust. This graph illustrates that "decline" is not really the correct word to describe the longterm trends in trust (in government particularly, though I don't have data about trust in general). There are huge swings in the graph, and the attempt to portray it as a steady trend by superimposing a smooth curve (the dotted line) is a bit contrived. We're at a lower level of trust today, but the situation isn't as cast in concrete and inevitable as "decline" suggests.

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/trust.gif

Grandfather Economic Report series(Worth noting, I think, that the overall theme of the page is antigovernment--don't accuse me of finding a Liberal source!)

BTW, the NewsHour interview was back in 1996, and the graph looks like it was created circa 2000. You can see the deep trough that they're talking about, though in fairness one should note that Clinton rebuilt public trust after that low point. It'd be nice to see the trend plotted to the present, but I can't find later data.

The graph suggests pretty credibly the forces that have been at work. Trust peaked in 1964-66, then went into freefall during the Vietnam War era and culminating (hitting bottom during Watergate (note the tiny rebound after Nixon resigned). Reagan earned himself some trust, lost it around the time of Iran-Contra and the S&L scandals, and GHWBush ran it into the ground. People didn't trust Clinton at first, but it's interesting how he steadily regained trust, with only a small flattening of the trend around the time of Monica.

What I'm saying is that trust in government isn't independent of the actions of government, most powerfully symbolized by the current President. Mistrust of government isn't a consequence of a general attitude of distrust, but just the opposite--people lose trust in government when government betrays or disappoints them.

I'm not sure whether or not you were trying to make the case that public mistrust of GWBush isn't his fault, since you didn't add any editorial comment. I think it's more accurate to say that the public, since the 60s, is generally skeptical of government and assumes the worst, but can also be pleasantly surprised when the government works well. The attitudes aren't set in stone.

Trust really is Bush's to lose.

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